The USD/JPY recorded a 0.19% gain in the week ending April 5, closing at 151.607. It reached a high of 151.951 on Wednesday before dropping to a low of 150.809 on Friday.
Wage growth trends from Japan will be of interest on Monday. Economists predict a 1.4% year-on-year increase in average cash earnings for February, following a 2.0% rise in January. Positive trends in wage growth could spur consumer spending and demand-driven inflation, potentially affecting the Bank of Japan’s rate decisions.
While these figures are relevant, lower-than-expected cash earnings may not greatly impact the Yen. Spring wage hikes led the Bank of Japan to move away from negative interest rates in March.
On Tuesday, March’s consumer confidence figures will be worth considering. An increase in consumer confidence may indicate stronger consumer spending, reflecting the effects of wage hikes on sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index is forecasted to rise from 39.1 to 40.0.
Additionally, machinery tool orders should also be taken into account. The Bank of Japan remains cautious about the macroeconomic environment. Weaker machinery order trends could dampen expectations of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Economists expect machinery orders to decline by 5.0% year-on-year in March, following an 8.0% drop in February.
Producer prices will take the spotlight on Wednesday, shedding light on inflation. Rising producer prices may indicate higher consumer prices as producers pass on price hikes due to increased demand. Economists anticipate a 0.8% year-on-year increase in producer prices for March, following a 0.6% rise in February.
Other relevant data includes the finalized industrial production figures for February. Unless there are significant adjustments to the preliminary data, machinery tool orders may have a greater impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate.
In addition to the data, investors should pay attention to Bank of Japan announcements and potential intervention threats from the Japanese government. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Support for maintaining zero interest rates could affect the demand for the Yen and prompt the Japanese government to consider intervention.
The 152 level remains a critical threshold concerning intervention.
Wednesday’s US CPI Report will garner significant attention. Following the stronger-than-expected US Jobs Report, persistent inflation could impact the likelihood of a June Fed rate cut. A tightening labor market may support wage growth and consumer spending.
An increase in consumer spending may fuel demand-driven inflation. A more prolonged period of higher Fed rates could lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced disposable income. Declining disposable income may affect consumer spending and curb demand-driven inflation.
Economists expect the annual core inflation rate to ease from 3.8% to 3.7% in March. Additionally, the inflation rate is projected to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%.
While US inflation takes center stage, Thursday’s producer price figures for March should also be taken into consideration. These figures are considered a leading indicator of consumer price trends. As demand improves, producers raise prices and pass them on to consumers.
Economists anticipate a 2.3% year-on-year increase in US producer prices, up from a 1.6% rise in February.
While the focus is on US inflation, weekly jobless claims figures may influence perceptions of the labor market. An increase in jobless claims could indicate a deteriorating labor market. Economists predict initial jobless claims will drop from 221k to 215k for the week ending April 6.
Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures will be in focus on Friday. An unexpected rise in consumer confidence could suggest increased consumer spending. Economists expect the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to decline from 79.4 to 79.0 in April.
Investors should also consider sub-components, including inflation expectations.
In addition to the numbers, speeches from FOMC members need to be monitored. FOMC members Neel Kashkari (Tuesday), Michelle Bowman (Wednesday), Austan Goolsbee (Wednesday), John Williams (Thursday), Susan Collins (Thursday), Raphael Bostic (Thursday/Friday), and Mary Daly (Friday) are scheduled to speak. Reactions to the US Jobs Report and US CPI Report may impact investor expectations of a June Fed rate cut.
Short-term trends for USD/JPY will be influenced by central bank announcements, inflation figures, and consumer confidence. If US inflation remains high while the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, expectations of a June rate cut may dwindle. This could strengthen the US dollar’s position through a higher and more extended rate path. However, if the Bank of Japan hints at raising interest rates from zero, it could weaken the USD/JPY exchange rate.
If the USD/JPY nears 152, threats of intervention from the Japanese government may intensify.
The USD/JPY comfortably remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish outlook.
A break above the 151.685 resistance level would support a move towards the 152 handle. However, resistance at last week’s high of 151.951, with lingering intervention threats, must be surpassed.
Fed and Bank of Japan statements, inflation, and consumer confidence will be the main focus.
On the other hand, a drop below the 150.500 level could provide an opportunity for bears to target the 50-day EMA. Falling below the 50-day EMA would bring the 148.529 support level into play.
The 14-day RSI at 62.34 suggests the USD/JPY could reach the 152 handle before entering overbought territory.
Trealdobeni
April 7, 2024 at 1:26 pm
Преимущества натуральных материалов для детской игровой площадки.* Раскладной! Сложили-разложили. 5 минут дела!
http://vinpr.org/nayka/136-teoriya-i-praktika-galiny-pyantkovskay.html
http://velo-sport.sumy.ua/?p=history&hp=2011
http://paravia.ru/photo/paragliding/labinsk/
Детские городки, различные спортивные комплексы и все тренажеры, выпускаемые ЗАО «ЗИСО», изготовлены исключительно из сертифицированных, долговечных и износостойких материалов, что гарантирует и максимальный ресурс, который необходим спортивным атрибутам, и безвредность для организма.Стоит добавить, что одинаково целесообразно использовать спортивный уголок как для мальчиков, так и для девочек. Ведь маленькие принцессы будут не меньше радоваться такому полезному времяпровождению.